Skip to main content

Russia and Iran and America, oh my

While America ponders health care and the economy, a lot is happening in foreign affairs. The UN's nuclear watchdog group leaked that Iran is probably much closer to having nukes than anyone thought. At the same time, Isreal leaked that Russian scientists have likely been helping Iran advance it's nuclear agenda. Here are some excerpts from recent Stratfor papers on the topic: "...previous assumptions on time frames on Iran are no longer valid, and worst-case assumptions must now be assumed. The Iranians are in fact moving rapidly toward a weapon; have been extremely effective in deceiving US intelligence (read, they deceived the Bush administration, but the Obama administration has figured it out); and therefore, we are moving toward a decisive moment with Iran. Second, this situation is the direct responsibility of Russian nuclear expertise. [Whether with or without Russian government blessing,] is immaterial.

"The US and Isreal are telling Iran that its deception campaign has been penetrated, and by extension are telling it that it faces military action--particularly if massive sanctions are impractical because of more Russian obstruction." While the US has recently threatened tough sanctions, Russia has made it clear that they will not participate. As one of Iran's major trading partners, if Russia does not participate, then sanctions are meaningless.

Stratfor continues "Polls now indicate that 60% of the US public now favors military action against Iran. From a political point of view, it has become easier for Obama to act than not to act... The Russians and Iranians have convinced themselves that Obama is unlikely to act because he is weak at home and already has too many issues to juggle. This is a case where a reputation for being conciliatory actually increases the chances for war."

Interestingly, this was written before Obama was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Are Americans comfortable in a world where Iran has an established nuclear capability and starts testing long-range missiles, while the peace-loving Obama smiles and negotiates? I have loved the change in demeanor from the new American President just like a lot of people. In other words, I think the US should speak softly. But as Iran pushes forward aggressively and Russia imposes its will on the Asian continent, America will need a big stick to keep its oil supply stable.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Real Estate in America

We sold our house this summer and bought a new home. The experience has led me to reflect on homes and home-buying in America. As in any industry, there are good and bad incentives at work in real estate. A home seller would like to get the highest price for their house and sell it in a reasonable period of time. The industry operates on a commission system so that the agent seeks to sell the house at a higher price. This incentive works, but only to a point. Consider the impact of $5000 on the seller vs. the agent. Six percent of $5000 is $300. After the realty company and purchasing agent take their cut, the agent isn't left with much. A $5000 difference in the price of the house means little to the agent, but a lot to the home owner. Does an agent become successful by getting the highest price or by turning over lots of houses? The answer is obvious. An agent's ideal world is not one where people get exactly the right price for their homes, it is a world where everyone is wi...

Bad Memes: This meme makes me sad.

This meme makes me sad. It takes a cheap shot at both climate scientists and meteorologists. I call it out here because of the mockery. It bypasses rational thought. It discounts science without having to engage in any reasoning. The laugh-till-you-cry faces emphasize the attitude you should have toward 'those people'. It’s important to note the impact these memes have on social interactions. They discourage actual discussion on these topics. Someone posts a meme that mocks a person, position, or party, and any friend who disagrees knows what topics to avoid. I'm offended by a cheap shot at meteorologists. Meteorologists have an immensely difficult job, and the predictions they make about events like hurricanes are amazing by any measure. Fifty years ago, people found out about hurricanes when the hurricane showed up. Now we have days to prepare, to board up windows, and to evacuate entire areas. Meteorologists save lives. Have you ever tracked a hurricane projection in the...

Solidarity with Ukraine

Number thirteen of Tim Snyder’s twenty lessons in his book On Tyranny is: Practice corporeal politics. Corporeal is a strange word to a lot of people–it just means physical. Practice politics with physical presence. Practice Corporeal Politics Power wants your body softening in your chair and your emotions dissipating on the screen. Get outside. Put your body in unfamiliar places with unfamiliar people. Make new friends and march with them. Milwaukee-area Ukrainians have had a number of events and fundraisers. They held a rally in downtown Milwaukee near Veteran’s Park. It was a small crowd. Many were ethnic Ukrainians. I might might have been the one non-Ukrainian there, aside from the news crews. They may have suspected that I was a spy. Here’s Zapruder-style evidence of my attendance at the rally. I’m in the back with the light cap. Here’s the local news coverage: TMJ4 Story I’m glad I went. I was there because, while there are important things going on in Wisconsin and American po...