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Russia and Iran and America, oh my

While America ponders health care and the economy, a lot is happening in foreign affairs. The UN's nuclear watchdog group leaked that Iran is probably much closer to having nukes than anyone thought. At the same time, Isreal leaked that Russian scientists have likely been helping Iran advance it's nuclear agenda. Here are some excerpts from recent Stratfor papers on the topic: "...previous assumptions on time frames on Iran are no longer valid, and worst-case assumptions must now be assumed. The Iranians are in fact moving rapidly toward a weapon; have been extremely effective in deceiving US intelligence (read, they deceived the Bush administration, but the Obama administration has figured it out); and therefore, we are moving toward a decisive moment with Iran. Second, this situation is the direct responsibility of Russian nuclear expertise. [Whether with or without Russian government blessing,] is immaterial.

"The US and Isreal are telling Iran that its deception campaign has been penetrated, and by extension are telling it that it faces military action--particularly if massive sanctions are impractical because of more Russian obstruction." While the US has recently threatened tough sanctions, Russia has made it clear that they will not participate. As one of Iran's major trading partners, if Russia does not participate, then sanctions are meaningless.

Stratfor continues "Polls now indicate that 60% of the US public now favors military action against Iran. From a political point of view, it has become easier for Obama to act than not to act... The Russians and Iranians have convinced themselves that Obama is unlikely to act because he is weak at home and already has too many issues to juggle. This is a case where a reputation for being conciliatory actually increases the chances for war."

Interestingly, this was written before Obama was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Are Americans comfortable in a world where Iran has an established nuclear capability and starts testing long-range missiles, while the peace-loving Obama smiles and negotiates? I have loved the change in demeanor from the new American President just like a lot of people. In other words, I think the US should speak softly. But as Iran pushes forward aggressively and Russia imposes its will on the Asian continent, America will need a big stick to keep its oil supply stable.

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