Matthew Comments

Part 1: The FAE When people see something or experience something, they often develop an explanation for what happened. For example, "I failed that test. Must be because I didn't study." The way people explain things to themselves can affect decisions that they make. If you think you failed a test because you didn't study, you might try studying for the next test. But if you think you failed because you're stupid, you are less likely to invest a lot of time studying. When people develop their explanations of what happens in the world, they can be biased in any number of ways. Psychologists call one of these biases the Fundamental Attribution Error (FAE). In a nutshell, here's the FAE in action: You are walking. You trip twice on the same sidewalk. You glance at the sidewalk and th ink, "Wow, bad sidewalk, so uneven!" You see someone walking. They trip twice on the same sidewalk. You glance at them and think, "Wow, what a klutz!" The ...

I'm not a fan of the so-called reforms about Wisconsin's collective bargaining for public workers. To be fair, reform was necessary, but it went a little too far in some ways and way too far in other ways. Regardless, I have to give props to the campaign the "WI Club for Growth" has going on. It's the billboard below. Because of the psychology involved, it's an excellent campaign. The reason it's particularly excellent is because research shows that so many people automatically discount ads from party they disagree with. If you are a Democrat who likes Democrat A, any ad that says "Democrat A is good" turns you on and any ad that says "Democrat A is bad" turns you off. Both happen viscerally even before you apply rational thought to it. So this ad starts by inviting you in before your brain can shut out the ad viscerally, before you can recognize it is not pro-Democrat A. It shows a nice picture of Barrett's face (from his own mayor...

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/15/opinion/stop-coddling-the-super-rich.html

There's been a lot of talk in Wisconsin about voter fraud and what needs to be done to prevent voter fraud. I'd like to address what the real voter fraud is and what it is not. There has been no substantial voter fraud proven in this state in recent memory. No statistically significant voter fraud has even been alleged. The accusations that are tossed around have more to do with someone standing too close to a polling station when they hand out literature than with someone actually voting in an illigitimate way. One couple in a recent election voted by absentee, then again at the polling station. They were caught easily. The system worked. The fraud that is used to justify so-called voter reform is not a problem. It's not just fear of getting caught that deters voter fraud today. In modern America, voter fraud is by-and-large a very inefficient way to influence an election. You have to find a group of people who are willing to commit crimes, you have to subvert the system a...

History is still in the process of deciding on "W" Bush's legacy, but Defense Secretary Robert Gates put another nail in the coffin of Bush's foreign policy legacy. Speaking at West Point recently, he said: “In my opinion, any future defense secretary who advises the president to again send a big American land army into Asia or into the Middle East or Africa should ‘have his head examined,’ as General MacArthur so delicately put it." Of course, Donald Rumsfeld and Bush charged the U.S. into two such wars simultaneously. And when Rumsfeld left his post, VP Dick Cheney hailed Rumsfeld as the greatest Secretary of Defense in American history. Hmmm. Gates is the one who belongs in a short-list of the greatest appointed public servants of our time. Appointed by Bush to save his administration's defense strategy, he stayed on with Obama to attempt to bring our nation's defense situation back from the brink. That is a tough job which he has navigated well.

"But when he saw many Pharisees and Sadducees coming for baptism, he said to them, "You brood of vipers! Who warned you to flee from the wrath to come? Bear fruit worthy of repentance. do not presume to say to yourselves, 'We have Abraham as our ancestor'; for I tell you, God is able from these stones to raise up children to Abraham. Even now the ax is lying at the root of the trees; every tree therefore that does not bear good fruit is cut down and thrown into the fire." Gospel of Matthew, 3:7-10 I heard this read as part of the gospel lesson reading today in church. The Pharisees and Sadducees were the annointed leaders of the local church, well positioned and politically involved, priviledged and sure of themselves. John the Baptist, this curious new phenom in the wilderness, was making waves as the real deal. Presumably as an act of c.y.a., the Pharisees and Sadducees ran out to check the John the Baptist experience off their list. John called them out. ...

Steve Walt issued a 14-point indictment of George W. Bush's foreign policy, and Will Inboden issued a response. Both are found in Foreign Policy's website . Like Imboden, I think Walt is wrong to say Bush should have done more about Bin Laden before 9/11. That is a case of hindsight and wishful thinking. Every disaster is followed by a chorus of "we should have known better." I also think Bush should get some credit for the lack of a major terrorist attack against the U.S. after 9/11. But some perspective is also needed. Bin Laden and his network were dangerous, but they were not as rich or as powerful as many small nations. The U.S. should not brag about preventing Libya or Khazakstan from mounting serious attacks on the U.S. But if an aggressive Libya or Khazakstan dominates our foreign policy for a decade, we should be embarassed. That is what happened with Al Queda. Bush's foreign policy was a disaster for one reason: He started an unnecessary war in Iraq. Eve...